The Marquee Races: New Jersey and Virginia
In New Jersey, Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill won the gubernatorial race in a landslide, defeating former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli by a margin of about 14%. Sherrill’s victory marks a continuation of Democratic leadership in the state.
Democrats also picked up at least three seats in the Assembly. When the lower chamber is reconstituted in January, Democrats will control at least 55 of the chamber’s 80-seats. This will give them a two-thirds supermajority in the lower chamber for the first time since 2019. Freezing utility rates and expanding property tax relief will likely to be debated next year in Trenton as Governor-elect Sherrill campaigned on these issues.
Virginia saw a similar Democratic wave, with former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger defeating Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by about 15 points – the largest margin for a Democrat since 1961 – to become the Virginia’s first female governor. Democrats Ghazala Hashmi and Jay Jones were elected Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, respective. Hashmi, who is currently a State Senator, is the first Indian American and first Muslim to win statewide office in Virginia.
Jones defeated incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) by approximately six-points. In polls leading up to election day, Miyares and Jones were head-to-head due to the release of 2022 texts between Jones and a colleague discussing the hypothetically killing of a Republican state lawmaker and his children. Jones issued a formal apology and called the texts a “grave mistake.” As attorney general, Jones will likely join other Democratic state attorneys general in suing the Trump Administration over policy actions.
Virginia Democrats also dramatically expanded their majority in the House of Delegates, winning 64 of the Commonwealth’s 100 districts – a 13-seat pickup. The results secured a Democratic trifecta – control of the governorship, House of Delegates, and State Senate – for the first time since 2021. The trifecta is expected to move quickly on priorities that had been stalled by outgoing Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, including passing a constitutional amendment to implement new Congressional district maps that may net Democrats three or four additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Partisan Power Plays and National Bellwethers
Beyond the governor's mansions, key races and ballot measures across the country revealed deeper political currents.
California voters approved Proposition 50, the “Election Rigging Response Act,” by a margin of 64% to 36%. The measure replaces the congressional maps drawn by the state's independent redistricting commission with new maps drawn by the Democratic-controlled legislature. The aggressive Democratic gerrymander was an explicit response to Republican redistricting efforts in Texas and is designed to flip as many as five Republican-held congressional seats in the 2026 midterms.
Texas Ballot Measures Texas voters continued the state's conservative trajectory by approving all 17 constitutional amendments on the ballot, including: - Proposition 2: Prohibits state capital gains taxes.
- Proposition 8: Prohibits state “death” or inheritance taxes.
- Proposition 13: Increases the homestead property tax exemption from $100,000 to $140,000.
- Proposition 15: Creates a "Parental Bill of Rights."
In Pennsylvania, voters opted to retain all three incumbent state Supreme Court justices – Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht. All three justices, originally elected as Democrats, survived a politicized "Vote No" campaign. This result is a major victory for Democrats, as it preserves the 5-2 Democratic majority on the high court, which has final say on critical state issues like abortion access and future redistricting battles.
The biggest surprises of last week’s elections were found in the South. In Georgia, Democrats Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard won their races for the state’s Public Service Commission (PUC). This marked the first time in nearly two decades that Democrats have won a non-federal, statewide election in Georgia.
Mississippi Democrats flipped two state Senate seats and one state House seat in court-ordered special elections. The victories, won by Johnny DuPree and Theresa Gillespie Isom in the Senate, were enough to break the Republican supermajority in the state’s upper chamber. This means that Republicans in the Magnolia State will no longer be able to unilaterally override a governor's veto or pass constitutional amendments.
Why this is Important: The 2025 off-year elections offered several distinct, and at times conflicting, messages for both parties as they begin to map out their strategies for the 2026 Congressional midterms. The results highlighted a potential "moderate" playbook for Democrats in swing states, the enduring power of the Republican base in Texas, and a new, aggressive phase to modify, or enhance, structural advantages – including Congressional district lines and election rules. | 
